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2028 Presidential Nominee Odds

Live prediction-market data from Kalshi — updated just now
Democrat Republican
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Odds reflect the market's implied probability (last "yes" ask price) and are not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi. For entertainment purposes — see the full market on kalshi.com.

Our Poll: Shirt Sales as Votes

Every shirt sold counts as one vote — here's the presidential race, by the numbers.
Democrat Republican
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This is our own informal poll based on real shirt sales, not a scientific survey or a prediction market. Compare it with the live Kalshi odds above — the two won't always agree, and that's half the fun.

Aggregated 2028 Polling

Weighted average across Kalshi and tracked public polls, by source trust.
Democrat Republican Independent Other
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Each source is weighted by an editable 0–100 trust score before averaging. Manage sources under Poll Sources in the admin.
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Senate Toss-Ups

Only races Cook Political Report rates a true Toss Up — everything else is a safer bet, and we're not selling merch for a race that isn't close.

Michigan Senate

Michigan Senate Polling

Weighted average across tracked sources for this race.
Democrat Republican Independent Other
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Each source is weighted by an editable 0–100 trust score before averaging. Manage sources under Poll Sources in the admin.

Texas Senate

Texas Senate Polling

Weighted average across tracked sources for this race.
Democrat Republican Independent Other
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Each source is weighted by an editable 0–100 trust score before averaging. Manage sources under Poll Sources in the admin.

Maine Senate

Maine Senate Polling

Weighted average across tracked sources for this race.
Democrat Republican Independent Other
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Each source is weighted by an editable 0–100 trust score before averaging. Manage sources under Poll Sources in the admin.

House Toss-Ups

A handful of the most competitive House districts in the country — more will be added as the field narrows.

Pennsylvania's 8th District

Pennsylvania's 8th District Polling

Weighted average across tracked sources for this race.
Democrat Republican Independent Other
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Each source is weighted by an editable 0–100 trust score before averaging. Manage sources under Poll Sources in the admin.

New York's 17th District

New York's 17th District Polling

Weighted average across tracked sources for this race.
Democrat Republican Independent Other
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Each source is weighted by an editable 0–100 trust score before averaging. Manage sources under Poll Sources in the admin.

California's 22nd District

California's 22nd District Polling

Weighted average across tracked sources for this race.
Democrat Republican Independent Other
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Each source is weighted by an editable 0–100 trust score before averaging. Manage sources under Poll Sources in the admin.